The government of Honduras, for example, is using the technology to handle land titles while the Isle of Man is testing its use in company registration. On a broader scale, technology-enabled platforms make possible what is now called the on-demand economy referred to by some as the sharing economy. These platforms, which are easy to use on a smart phone, convene people, assets and data, creating entirely new ways of consuming goods and services.
They lower barriers for businesses and individuals to create wealth, altering personal and professional environments. The Uber model epitomizes the disruptive power of these technology platforms. These platform businesses are rapidly multiplying to offer new services ranging from laundry to shopping, from chores to parking, from home-stays to sharing long-distance rides.
They have one thing in common: by matching supply and demand in a very accessible low cost way, by providing consumers with diverse goods, and by allowing both parties to interact and give feedback, these platforms therefore seed trust.
This enables the effective use of under-utilized assets — namely those belonging to people who had previously never thought of themselves as suppliers i. The on-demand economy raises the fundamental question: What is worth owning — the platform or the underlying asset?
Alibaba, the most valuable retailer, has no inventory. Each transaction can now be divided into very fine increments, with economic gains for all parties involved.
In addition, when using digital platforms, the marginal cost of producing each additional product, good or service tends towards zero. This has dramatic implications for business and society that I will explore in Chapter Three.
In recent years, considerable progress has been achieved in reducing the cost and increasing the ease of genetic sequencing, and lately, in activating or editing genes. Today, a genome can be sequenced in a few hours and for less than a thousand dollars. Synthetic biology is the next step. It will provide us with the ability to customize organisms by writing DNA.
Setting aside the profound ethical issues this raises, these advances will not only have a profound and immediate impact on medicine but also on agriculture and the production of biofuels.
Many of our intractable health challenges, from heart disease to cancer, have a genetic component. Because of this, the ability to determine our individual genetic make-up in an efficient and cost-effective manner through sequencing machines used in routine diagnostics will revolutionize personalized and effective healthcare. This differs from genetic engineering practiced in the s in that it is much more precise, efficient and easier to use than previous methods.
In fact, the science is progressing so fast that the limitations are now less technical than they are legal, regulatory and ethical. The list of potential applications is virtually endless — ranging from the ability to modify animals so that they can be raised on a diet that is more economical or better suited to local conditions, to creating food crops that are capable of withstanding extreme temperatures or drought.
In principle, both plants and animals could potentially be engineered to produce pharmaceuticals and other forms of treatment. The day when cows are engineered to produce in its milk a blood-clotting element, which haemophiliacs lack, is not far off.
Researchers have already started to engineer the genomes of pigs with the goal of growing organs suitable for human transplantation a process called xenotransplantation, which could not be envisaged until now because of the risk of immune rejection by the human body and of disease transmission from animals to humans.
In line with the point made earlier about how different technologies fuse and enrich each other, 3D manufacturing will be combined with gene editing to produce living tissues for the purpose of tissue repair and regeneration — a process called bioprinting. Eventually, printed liver-cell layers will be used to create transplant organs. We are developing new ways to embed and employ devices that monitor our activity levels and blood chemistry, and how all of this links to well-being, mental health and productivity at home and at work.
We are also learning far more about how the human brain functions and we are seeing exciting developments in the field of neurotechnology.
This is underscored by the fact that — over the past few years - two of the most funded research programs in the world are in brain sciences. It is in the biological domain where I see the greatest challenges for the development of both social norms and appropriate regulation.
We are confronted with new questions around what it means to be human, what data and information about our bodies and health can or should be shared with others, and what rights and responsibilities we have when it comes to changing the very genetic code of future generations.
To return to the issue of genetic editing, that it is now far easier to manipulate with precision the human genome within viable embryos means that we are likely to see the advent of designer babies in the future who possess particular traits or who are resistant to a specific disease. Needless to say, discussions about the opportunities and challenges of these capabilities are underway.
Despite such deliberations, we are not yet prepared to confront the realities and consequences of the latest genetic techniques even though they are coming. The social, medical, ethical and psychological challenges that they pose are considerable and need to be resolved, or at the very least, properly addressed. The dynamics of discovery Innovation is a complex, social process, and not one we should take for granted.
Therefore, even though this section has highlighted a wide array of technological advances with the power to change the world, it is important that we pay attention to how we can ensure such advances continue to be made and directed towards the best possible outcomes. New evidence, however, indicates that the career incentives and funding conditions in universities today favour incremental, conservative research over bold and innovative programmes.
This too, however, has its challenges. In , Uber Technologies Inc. Department of Defence and other organizations. Equally, public-private research collaborations should increasingly be structured towards building knowledge and human capital to the benefit of all.
They are, however, giving rise to very practical applications and developments. A World Economic Forum report published in September identified 21 tipping points — moments when specific technological shifts hit mainstream society — that will shape our future digital and hyper-connected world.
Table 1 presents the percentage of respondents who expect that the specific tipping point will have occurred by Two tipping points that were not part of the original survey — designer beings and neurotechnologies — are also included but do not appear on Table 1.
These tipping points provide important context as they signal the substantive changes that lie ahead - amplified by their systemic nature - and how best to prepare and respond. As I explore in the next chapter, navigating this transition begins with awareness of the shifts that are going on, as well as those to come, and their impact on all levels of global society. Impact The scale and breadth of the unfolding technological revolution will usher in economic, social and cultural changes of such phenomenal proportions that they are almost impossible to envisage.
Nevertheless, this chapter describes and analyses the potential impact of the fourth industrial revolution on the economy, business, governments and countries, society and individuals. In all these areas, one of the biggest impacts will likely result from a single force: empowerment — how governments relate to their citizens; how enterprises relate to their employees, shareholders and customers; or how superpowers relate to smaller countries.
The disruption that the fourth industrial revolution will have on existing political, economic and social models will therefore require that empowered actors recognize that they are part of a distributed power system that requires more collaborative forms of interaction to succeed. Indeed, all the big macro variables one can think of — GDP, investment, consumption, employment, trade, inflation and so on — will be affected.
I have decided to focus only on the two most critical dimensions: growth in large part through the lens of its long-term determinant, productivity and employment.
On one side, the techno- pessimists argue that the critical contributions of the digital revolution have already been made and that their impact on productivity is almost over. In the opposite camp, techno-optimists claim that technology and innovation are at an inflection point and will soon unleash a surge in productivity and higher economic growth.
While I acknowledge aspects of both sides of the argument, I remain a pragmatic optimist. I also see how the fourth industrial revolution enables many people to consume more at a lower price and in a way that often makes consumption more sustainable and therefore responsible. It is important to contextualize the potential impacts of the fourth industrial revolution on growth with reference to recent economic trends and other factors that contribute to growth. If this rate had continued, it would have allowed global GDP to double every years, with billions of people lifted out of poverty.
But this has not happened. The global economy seems to be stuck at a growth rate lower than the post-war average — about Although this idea is disputed among academics, it has momentous implications. If true, it suggests that global GDP growth could decline even further. There are many explanations for slower global growth today, ranging from capital misallocation to over indebtedness to shifting demographics and so on.
I will address two of them, ageing and productivity, as both are particularly interwoven with technological progress. This should lead to an increase in aggregate demand. But there is another powerful demographic trend: ageing. The conventional wisdom is that ageing primarily affects rich countries in the West. This is not the case, however. Birth rates are falling below replacement levels in many regions of the world — not only in Europe, where the decline began, but also in most of South America and the Caribbean, much of Asia including China and southern India, and even some countries in the Middle East and North Africa such as Lebanon, Morocco and Iran.
Ageing is an economic challenge because unless retirement ages are drastically increased so that older members of society can continue to contribute to the workforce an economic imperative that has many economic benefits , the working-age population falls at the same time as the percentage of dependent elders increases. In addition, fewer people are likely to take entrepreneurial risks because ageing workers tend to preserve the assets they need to retire comfortably rather than set up new businesses.
This is somewhat balanced by people retiring and drawing down their accumulated savings, which in the aggregate lowers savings and investment rates. These habits and patterns may change of course, as ageing societies adapt, but the general trend is that an ageing world is destined to grow more slowly unless the technology revolution triggers major growth in productivity, defined simply as the ability to work smarter rather than harder.
The fourth industrial revolution provides us with the ability to live longer, healthier and more active lives. As we live in a society where more than a quarter of the children born today in advanced economies are expected to live to , we will have to rethink issues such the working age population, retirement and individual life-planning.
Productivity Over the past decade, productivity around the world whether measured as labour productivity or total-factor productivity TFP has remained sluggish, despite the exponential growth in technological progress and investments in innovation.
Consider the US, where labour productivity grew on average 2. Yet how can we reconcile the data indicating declining productivity with the expectations of higher productivity that tend to be associated with the exponential progress of technology and innovation?
One primary argument focuses on the challenge of measuring inputs and outputs and hence discerning productivity. Innovative goods and services created in the fourth industrial revolution are of significantly higher functionality and quality, yet are delivered in markets that are fundamentally different from those which we are traditionally used to measuring. Under these conditions, our traditional statistics may well fail to capture real increases in value as consumer surplus is not yet reflected in overall sales or higher profits.
There are many other similar services whose use tends to increase efficiency and hence productivity. Yet because they are essentially free, they therefore provide uncounted value at home and at work. This creates a discrepancy between the value delivered via a given service versus growth as measured in national statistics. It also suggests that we are actually producing and consuming more efficiently than our economic indicators suggest.
My optimism stems from three main sources. First, the fourth industrial revolution offers the opportunity to integrate the unmet needs of two billion people into the global economy, driving additional demands for existing products and services by empowering and connecting individuals and communities all over the world to one another. Second, the fourth industrial revolution will greatly increase our ability to address negative externalities and, in the process, to boost potential economic growth.
Take carbon emissions, a major negative externality, as an example. Until recently, green investing was only attractive when heavily subsidized by governments. This is less and less the case. Rapid technological advances in renewable energy, fuel efficiency and energy storage not only make investments in these fields increasingly profitable, boosting GDP growth, but they also contribute to mitigating climate change, one of the major global challenges of our time.
Third, as I discuss in the next section, businesses, governments and civil society leaders with whom I interact all tell me that they are struggling to transform their organizations to realize fully the efficiencies that digital capabilities deliver. We are still at the beginning of the fourth industrial revolution, and it will require entirely new economic and organizational structures to grasp its full value.
Indeed, my view is that the competitiveness rules of the fourth industrial revolution economy are different from previous periods. To remain competitive, both companies and countries must be at the frontier of innovation in all its forms, which means that strategies which primarily focus on reducing costs will be less effective than those which are based on offering products and services in more innovative ways.
As we see today, established companies are being put under extreme pressure by emerging disruptors and innovators from other industries and countries. The same could be said for countries that do not recognize the need to focus on building their innovation ecosystems accordingly. To sum up, I believe that the combination of structural factors over- indebtedness and ageing societies and systemic ones the introduction of the platform and on-demand economies, the increasing relevance of decreasing marginal costs, etc.
The fourth industrial revolution has the potential both to increase economic growth and to alleviate some of the major global challenges we collectively face. We need, however, to also recognize and manage the negative impacts it can have, particularly with regard to inequality, employment and labour markets. Fears about the impact of technology on jobs are not new. Over the past few years, the debate has been reignited by evidence of computers substituting for a number of jobs, most notably bookkeepers, cashiers and telephone operators.
The reasons why the new technology revolution will provoke more upheaval than the previous industrial revolutions are those already mentioned in the introduction: speed everything is happening at a much faster pace than ever before , breadth and depth so many radical changes are occurring simultaneously , and the complete transformation of entire systems. In light of these driving factors, there is one certainty: New technologies will dramatically change the nature of work across all industries and occupations.
The fundamental uncertainty has to do with the extent to which automation will substitute for labour. How long will this take and how far will it go? To get a grasp on this, we have to understand the two competing effects that technology exercises on employment. First, there is a destruction effect as technology-fuelled disruption and automation substitute capital for labour, forcing workers to become unemployed or to reallocate their skills elsewhere.
As human beings, we have an amazing ability for adaptation and ingenuity. But the key here is the timing and extent to which the capitalization effect supersedes the destruction effect, and how quickly the substitution will take. There are roughly two opposing camps when it comes to the impact of emerging technologies on the labour market: those who believe in a happy ending — in which workers displaced by technology will find new jobs, and where technology will unleash a new era of prosperity; and those who believe it will lead to a progressive social and political Armageddon by creating technological unemployment on a massive scale.
History shows that the outcome is likely to be somewhere in the middle. The question is: What should we do to foster more positive outcomes and help those caught in the transition?
It has always been the case that technological innovation destroys some jobs, which it replaces in turn with new ones in a different activity and possibly in another place. Take agriculture as an example. This dramatic downsizing took place relatively smoothly, with minimal social disruption or endemic unemployment. The app economy provides an example of a new job ecosystem. It only began in when Steve Jobs, the founder of Apple, let outside developers create applications for the iPhone.
The techno-optimists ask: If we extrapolate from the past, why should it be different this time? They acknowledge that technology can be disruptive but claim that it always ends up improving productivity and increasing wealth, leading in turn to greater demand for goods and services and new types of jobs to satisfy it.
The substance of the argument goes as follows: Human needs and desires are infinite so the process of supplying them should also be infinite. Barring the normal recessions and occasional depressions, there will always be work for everybody.
The early signs point to a wave of labour-substitutive innovation across multiple industries and job categories which will likely happen in the coming decades. Labour substitution Many different categories of work, particularly those that involve mechanically repetitive and precise manual labour, have already been automated. Many others will follow, as computing power continues to grow exponentially.
Sooner than most anticipate, the work of professions as different as lawyers, financial analysts, doctors, journalists, accountants, insurance underwriters or librarians may be partly or completely automated.
So far, the evidence is this: The fourth industrial revolution seems to be creating fewer jobs in new industries than previous revolutions. This is corroborated by a recent US Economic Census, which sheds some interesting light on the relationship between technology and unemployment. It shows that innovations in information and other disruptive technologies tend to raise productivity by replacing existing workers, rather than creating new products needing more labour to produce them.
In addition, the trend is towards greater polarization in the labour market. Employment will grow in high-income cognitive and creative jobs and low-income manual occupations, but it will greatly diminish for middle-income routine and repetitive jobs. This job simplification means that algorithms are better able to replace humans. Discrete, well-defined tasks lead to better monitoring and more high-quality data around the task, thereby creating a better base from which algorithms can be designed to do the work.
In thinking about the automation and the phenomenon of substitution, we should resist the temptation to engage in polarized thinking about the impact of technology on employment and the future of work.
But this does not mean that we face a man-versus-machine dilemma. In fact, in the vast majority of cases, the fusion of digital, physical and biological technologies driving the current changes will serve to enhance human labour and cognition, meaning that leaders need to prepare workforces and develop education models to work with, and alongside, increasingly capable, connected and intelligent machines.
Impact on skills In the foreseeable future, low-risk jobs in terms of automation will be those that require social and creative skills; in particular, decision-making under uncertainty and the development of novel ideas. This, however, may not last. Consider one of the most creative professions — writing — and the advent of automated narrative generation.
Sophisticated algorithms can create narratives in any style appropriate to a particular audience. The content is so human-sounding that a recent quiz by The New York Times showed that when reading two similar pieces, it is impossible to tell which one has been written by a human writer and which one is the product of a robot. These trends vary by industry and geography, and so it is important to understand the industry and country-specific outcomes of the fourth industrial revolution.
As Figure 1 shows, survey respondents believe that complex problem solving, social and systems skills will be far more in demand in when compared to physical abilities or content skills. The report finds that the next five years are a critical period of transition: the overall employment outlook is flat but there is significant job churn within industries and skill churn within most occupations.
While wages and work-life balance are expected to improve slightly for most occupations, job security is expected to worsen in half of the industries surveyed.
It is also clear that women and men will be affected differently, potentially exacerbating gender inequality see Box A: Gender Gaps and the Fourth Industrial Revolution. First, at the current pace of progress, it will take another years before economic gender parity is achieved around the world. Second, progress towards parity is remarkably slow, and possibly stalling. In light of this, it is critical to consider the impact of the fourth industrial revolution on the gender gap.
How will the accelerating pace of change in technologies that span the physical, digital and biological worlds affect the role that women are able to play in the economy, politics and society? An important question to consider is whether female-dominated or male- dominated professions are more susceptible to automation. Losing a job has negative effects in many circumstances, but the cumulative effect of significant losses across whole job categories that have traditionally given women access to the labour market is a critical concern.
Specifically, it will put at risk single-income households headed by low- skilled women, depress total earnings in two-income families, and widen the already-troubling gender gap around the world. But what about new roles and job categories?
What new opportunities could exist for women in a labour market transformed by the fourth industrial revolution? While it is difficult to map the competencies and skills expected in industries not yet created, we can reasonably assume that demand will increase for skills that enable workers to design, build and work alongside technological systems, or in areas that fill the gaps left by these technological innovations.
Because men still tend to dominate computer science, mathematical and engineering professions, increased demand for specialized technical skills may exacerbate gender inequalities. Yet demand may grow for roles that machines cannot fulfil and which rely on intrinsically human traits and capabilities such as empathy and compassion. Women are prevalent in many such occupations including psychologists, therapists, coaches, event planners, nurses and other providers of healthcare.
In the United States, the National Academy of Sciences, engineering and Medicine recently presented a report encouraging the development og gene drive technology which can be used to control and eradicate mosquitoes that are disease vectors for human illnesses Jeganathan et al.
In this report, they recommend a precautionary approach so as to control its other effects on the human populace, but are these enough?
If these regulations are made, how will they be enforced? Professionals of engineering education will have to do more than recommendations. All these are to ensure that these technological innovations do not dominate mankind or erode valued virtues like living in harmony with nature Solomon, Lastly, the coming of the Fourth Industrial Revolution means an increase in online studies as well as the automation of many tasks.
As already observed now in the society, this will lead to a reduction in human contacts and socialization as the number of people who use their computers to study and use them, among other machines, to work keeps rising. Bir posits that engineering education requires special attention when offered on an online medium unlike other fields of education. This is because of the need to educate engineering students using laboratory experience and equation manipulation and, this is not effectively achieved online.
Face-to-face learning and group work teaches students to ask questions, develop thinking skills via maker spaces, design workshops and, student-run innovation groups Hoffman, Engineering education in industry 4. This study has revealed the challenges and implications that engineering education will be faced with and also recommended solutions to tackle these.
Engineering education and training systems need to adapt to better prepare future engineers for the flexibility, critical thinking and creative skills needed, opportunities in new and value-adding ways should be seized so as to build a strategic vision for the future. A multi-disciplinary entity should be established in engineering schools with the focus of driving the applied side of engineering together with innovation, design, and all the way towards commercialization and entrepreneurship.
State of the art practices should be deployed in engineering education and engineering education research should be fostered among engineering faculties. As engineering education evolves to meet changes in technology, markets and societal needs, engineering faculties must be trained on the needed teaching and learning techniques and professional skills that their students will encounter in the workplace. Employers are looking for engineers with creativity, leadership and entrepreneurial skills, lifelong learning skills and the ability to work in interdisciplinary team, engineers who will incorporate interdisciplinary knowledge in their work.
Engineering educators should respond to these by developing and continuously updating their skills and preparing their students also. Environmental education for engineers will improve their interaction with society, giving them the needed skills and knowledge on general global issues.
Scientific Foundations for Future Physicians. Accessed 2 February, History of industrial education in the United States. Peoria, Illinois: Chas. Bennett Co. Accessed on 2 February July 1. Accessed December 3, New York: Free Press. Developing a New Introductory Biology Curriculum. Accessed November 2, Washington, D. Accessed 2 December November 1. The Verge. Standard of Living since the Civil War.
Howes, and K. Strategic Programs for Innovations in Undergraduate Physics. Accessed on the 4 February A : 11— Cyber Physical Systems in the Context of Industry 4. Exercise rehabilitation in the fourth industrial revolution. Journal of Exercise Rehabilitation, 13 3 , Public Policy and Governance. Liberal Arts Consortium for Online Learning. Business Insider. Worldwide Trends inGreen Chemistry Education.
Cambridge: Royal Society of Chemistry. This is CS Edited by Harvard Crimson. September Accessed December 2, Retrieved from. In Ap 50, Students Own their Education. Journal of Self-Governance and Management Economics, 5 1 , Challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Knowledge Horizons. Economics, 8 1 , The Singularity is Near. New York: Penguin.
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